Scientists from around the world and program managers at funding agencies have started to contemplate how to prepare for a possible next-generation model intercomparison in the CMIP series, CMIP6. At the time of this meeting, scientists were approaching the end of the IPCC AR5 process and the culmination of the extensive model intercomparison exercise of CMIP5, which revealed gaps in the science and opportunities for new climate model experiments to explore aspects of the science that would best be addressed in a coordinated set of model experiments. Planning has also begun for a possible CMIP6 in terms of funding agency preparations, computing resources, new model versions, and new science questions. This timing afforded a unique opportunity to assess the accomplishments and outstanding issues with the CMIP5 process and use this to help inform the development of experimental design and research directions that can be considered for inclusion in the CMIP6 process. This is a similar place to where an earlier group was in 2006 when a key AGCI session was held to flesh out CMIP5.
Possible science issues related to a future CMIP6 included, but were not limited to:
• Land use –aerosols –ESM applications—interact with a couple of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that show quite different outcomes from RCPs
• Reversibility or geo-engineering
• More idealized experiments, e.g. 1% runs but for other forcings, idealized aerosol, ozone, land use, like the 1% runs
• Decadal prediction and extremes
• Systematic biases
• Very high resolution time slice experiments for tropical cyclones and other aspects of storms and circulation changes
• Higher resolution coupled simulations for tropical cyclones, extremes, and circulation changes
• Coupled land ice for better estimates of global and regional sea level rise
For an effective discussion participants from the following disciplines were included: climate modelers, carbon cycle/earth system modelers, integrated assessment modelers, social scientists, agency program managers.
Workshop Topic (s):
- Climate Variability and Change (including Climate Modeling)