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Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI)
is an independent nonprofit dedicated to furthering the scientific understanding of Earth systems and global environmental change through interdisciplinary scientific workshops, educational programs, and publications & videos.




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FEATURED VIDEO

Our Energy Challenge

According to Rice University professor Richard Smalley, energy is the number one challenge facing humanity today. In this engaging and thought-provoking lecture, Smalley explains that finding sustainable sources of energy for the entire world will not only alleviate a growing energy crisis, but will also assist in the solution to many of the world's other problems, such as water, terrorism, and health. Here Smalley presents his vision for our energy future, which focuses on the transition to renewable sources of energy by developing cost-effective technologies that capture solar, wind, and geothermal energy. Drawing from his professional experience, Smalley argues that advances in nanotechnology are the key to achieving a sustainable energy future. Recorded 8 July 2003.

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NEWSWORTHY
Advancements in Decadal Prediction

Advancements in Decadal Prediction

As infrastructure planners and resource managers become more aware of the looming impacts of climate change, increased attention has focused on "decadal prediction"--climate modeling that can forecast climate for the next 10-30 years. Three key variables that operate at the decadal scale are the climate commitment from existing GHG emissions, external forcing from new GHG emissions, and the climate system's internal variability. In the summer of 2008, a group of climate modelers from Japan, England, Australia, Germany, and France along with modelers from the U.S. came together at the Aspen Global Change Institute to explore modeling skill at the decadal timescale and to develop an experimental framework for decadal prediction. The framework developed at this meeting will contribute to the experimental design for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5), which will eventually support the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

Participants at the meeting recently published the framework developed at the Aspen meeting in the October issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society. In addition, numerous technical presentations and slideshows on the topic of decadal prediction are available on our website.

pdf BAMS Article on Decadal Prediction
  more AGCI Presentations on Decadal Prediction

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