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Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI)
is an independent nonprofit dedicated to furthering the scientific understanding of Earth systems and global environmental change through interdisciplinary scientific workshops, educational programs, and publications & videos.

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If we can't predict weather beyond 10 days, why can we predict climate beyond 10 years?

This lecture describes the distinction and the scientific underpinnings for weather and climate prediction. Specific examples include El Nino, persistent drought in the western US, decadal climate variability and climate change. Dr. Kirtman also comments on the current advances in climate prediction and prospects for the development of improved predictive capability critical in agriculture and resource management. Recorded 28 June 2011.

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Free AGCI Walter Orr Roberts Public Lecture: December 2

Free AGCI Walter Orr Roberts Public Lecture: December 2

Join us to hear Prof. Palma-Oliveira, of the University of Lisbon, discuss "Predicting Community Resilience in a Changing Climate." Prof. Palma-Oliveira studies the radical changes that have occurred in human societies and ecosystems around the globe since the rise of agriculture around 6000 BCE. Research now illustrates that these shifts in human societies, coupled with the consequences of climate change, comprise a major threat to communities across the globe. Community resilience depends upon two main factors: the degree to which (a) local ecosystem functions are dependent on the human actions and (b) social stress and inequality abound within a society. This lecture explores how a better understanding of these two factors allows communities to better predict and shape their resilience in the face of global change.

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